Four · Over you

The weather.

Most forecasts give you an icon and a number and leave you to guess how much to trust it. We would rather answer the question you actually asked — can I see the sky tonight, when should I do this outside, what are the odds — and tell you how confident the answer is.

National modelsLive observationsOdds, not iconsConfidence stated

What we measure

Ten things, with the disagreement kept in.

Forecasts are built from national numerical weather models and checked against live airport observations. Where the models disagree, we do not hide it — the spread between them is the confidence figure we hand back.

Tonightcloud against the sky worth seeing
Windowsthe best hours for a job outdoors
Point forecastthe hour-by-hour for one place
Quantitiestemperature, wind, rain, cloud, humidity
Oddsthe probability, not a yes/no
Confidencehow far the models disagree
Pressurethe trend, and what it means
Observationslive airport reports as the reality check
Climate filesthe typical year, for design work
Sea surfaceocean temperature

The question it answers

Will I see it tonight, and how sure are you?

That is one question, not two, and Weather answers it as one. The Perseid peak over your roof, the cloud that will be sitting on it at that hour, and a confidence figure taken from how far the national models actually disagree with each other — in a single sentence, for your point rather than your region.

Tonight — is the sky worth going outside for
The window — the best hours to do the thing
The odds — a probability, not an icon
The confidence — how much the models disagree

Ensemble members diverging over the forecast horizon; their spread is the confidence figure

Every thin line is one national model run. They agree about tonight and fan apart by the weekend — the width of that fan is the confidence figure.

Live today

The forecast, as a to-do.

Chores turns the forecast into “do it now”. Beyond it, weather lives inside the other apps — the night worth going out for, the daylight your clock will actually get.

The apps →

WeatherTemperature, rain and wind for the next 48 hours, right where you are.
ChoresThe forecast, rewritten as do it now.

How it is carried

Weather is carried, not printed.

A forecast is out of date before the ink dries, so Weather arrives in the forms that stay current: a number in the app, a window in the planner’s day, an alarm that fires when the cloud actually clears, a line in your calendar the evening before. The climate normals behind it — the average sky for this place in this month — do print, and they sit in the almanacs.

A number in the app
A window in the day
An alarm when it clears
A line in your calendar

Build with it

The odds, in your own code.

Forthcoming

Point forecasts and quantities, the odds of a condition rather than a yes/no, working windows, pressure trend, live observations — and a confidence figure that comes from how far the models actually disagree. Ask for tonight’s sky, a working window, an hourly forecast, or the confidence behind any of it, for any place.

Your point — not the region the icon was drawn for
Odds, not icons — a probability you can act on
Confidence stated — the model spread comes back with the number
Named sources — national models we ingest ourselves, plus live observations
No upstream vendor — nothing here is a wrapper that can go down under us
Plain JSON — small, flat, boring on purpose
Nothing retained — requests are answered and discarded
Stable shapes — fields are added, never renamed under you

Want it wired into the system that actually makes the call — a dispatcher, a booking page, a site diary — or built into software of your own? Ask for that instead. And if you have looked at this and concluded it could not be done, bring it here and let us give it a second thought.

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